Structural Reshaping Under AI: The Shift of Global Growth Engines and the Rebalancing of Geoeconomics

The global macro picture in 2026 is quite different from what is often seen as a script of trade protectionism conflict. Although trade policy uncertainty still exists, the focus of the market narrative is quietly shifting from tariff barriers to the deep penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) and the acceleration of structural investment. Deutsche Bank's annual outlook reveals an era where a global economic growth engine is undergoing a profound shift.

The growth rate of the global real economy is expected to continue the trajectory of 2024 and 2025, but the source of its growth is undergoing a fundamental shift. In the US, with reduced trade policy uncertainty and direct boosts to household income from tax cuts, a renewed acceleration is anticipated. At the same time, the potential productivity gains from AI are seen as a structural opportunity that could replicate the productivity leap of the 1990s, injecting new growth momentum into the economy. However, the benefits of this growth are not universal; the ultimate winners and losers will depend on the interaction of complex factors, which may not become apparent until after 2026.

Meanwhile, the growth narratives of major global economies show significant structural divergence. Germany, benefiting from the release of fiscal stimulus and new investments in defense and infrastructure, is expected to experience a meaningful economic recovery. Although the European economy shows resilience, its structural vulnerabilities—including dependence on the US and China and the uncertainty brought by geopolitical fragmentation—remain risk points that need to be watched. European policy focus will be on how to balance external pressures with internal competition, especially in increasing defense spending and closing the innovation gap.

China's economic growth path is becoming more cautious due to the progress of "anti-involution" reforms. As structural reforms reshape supply-side behavior, economic growth expectations are slowing to around 4.5%. However, confidence among Chinese leadership in national technological capabilities and economic resilience is strengthening, indicating that their strategic determination in key technological fields remains unshaken.

It is worth noting that monetary policy from global central banks remains highly cautious. The Fed is expected to undertake a limited period of interest rate cuts, while the ECB may postpone rate cuts until mid-2027 before considering hikes. This reflects inflation gradually returning to a normalized track in major economies, but the tightness in structural labor markets still constrains economic growth.

Under the geopolitical backdrop, the competitive landscape between regions is becoming more complex. In Europe, governments are increasing investment in defense and key raw materials to address regional security challenges. In the US, although there are risks of slowing labor markets and rising fiscal deficits, policymakers are showing some room for maneuver in terms of tax leverage and inflation control.

In the long term, the future global economic growth will no longer depend solely on the traditional manufacturing cycle.From a long-term structural perspective, future global economic growth will no longer solely depend on the traditional manufacturing cycle. The widespread application of AI will become the core variable driving the productivity revolution, determining which industries can achieve leapfrog development and which may face the risk of being eliminated. This is not just a technological revolution, but a large-scale structural shift of the global capital and industrial focus towards high-tech and secure infrastructure sectors. For investors, understanding this shift in growth sources, as well as the fiscal and industrial policies adopted by countries in response to geopolitical economic friction, is key to grasping the global business environment in 2026 and beyond.